Yes, she can: Palin has a shot at the presidency

By Matthew Dowd
Tuesday, November 24, 2009

President Sarah Palin. To many pundits and late-night comedians, thissounds like a punch line, and to many die-hard Democrats it sounds likea reason to leave the country.

Yet while the conventional wisdom has it that Palin is too badlydamaged to make a serious run in 2012 -- and I agree that her successis not probable -- it is definitely a possibility that Palin could beelected president of the United States.

Those having concerns about my objectivity or wondering whether I ama "Palinista" should keep in mind that I raised serious questions abouther qualifications last fall -- doubts I still have -- and that Ipredicted John McCain would look back at his vice presidential pickwith remorse.

Looking ahead to the political landscape of the 2012 presidentialelection, there are certain elements to keep in mind, assuming thatPresident Obama runs for reelection.

First, Gallup polls over the past 60 years show that no presidentwith an approval rating under 47 percent has won reelection, and nopresident with an approval rating above 51 percent has lost reelection.(George W. Bush's approval rating in the weeks before the 2004 electionhovered around 50 percent.) The 2012 election will be primarily aboutour current president and whether voters are satisfied with thecountry's direction.

Who the Republican candidate is, and his or her qualifications andabilities, will matter only if Obama's approval rating is between 47and 51 percent going into the fall of 2012. Interestingly, in thelatest Gallup poll Obama's approval rating was at a precarious 49percent.

Second, America is still (unfortunately) politically divided andpolarized, and Palin benefits from this dynamic. While Democrats loveObama, Republicans look on him with real disfavor. The gap betweenObama's approval rating among Democrats and among Republicans is nearly70 percentage points -- a higher partisan divide than either BillClinton or George W. Bush experienced. Obama's agenda and actions thisyear, and some mistakes, have solidified this divide.

Polls show that Palin's favorability numbers are a mirror image ofthose of Obama. She is respected and loved by the Republican base,while Democrats despise her. Granted, independent voters havesignificant reservations about her capability to be president, and thiswould be a hurdle in the general election. But to win the Republicannomination, Palin needs only to get enough support from the base to winearly key states. Already, in nearly every poll today, she has a levelof support that makes her a viable primary candidate. Just look at thecrowds and the buzz her book tour is drawing.

While today I would not support a Palin candidacy, here are fivesuggestions that would go a long way toward winning her more converts:

-- Quality over quantity. You don't need to "tweet" quite somuch. You don't need to be at countless rallies and photo ops. Instead,seek out substantive platforms where you can relate to people in athoughtful, measured way. Appear on Sunday shows every now and then,sit down with Charlie Rose and editorial boards, and give seriousspeeches on your approach to the world in the 21st century.

-- Hope and fear. To be elected president, a candidate hasto understand voters' fears but appeal to their hopes. Ronald Reagan(and Bill Clinton) knew this very well. To do this morecomprehensively, I would suggest traveling more to better get a handleon where the voters are on topics related to finances, faith, race,etc. Get out of the bubble of high-profile events. Go to the innercities, the suburbs and small towns where folks are trying to livetheir lives through great anxiety. And don't go to talk about yourself,but to listen to others.

-- Reagan is the past. While Reagan is a beloved presidentwho did much for this country, folks want to look to the future andbelieve in a new brand of leader. Espousing the values Reagan spoke toand represented is fine, but you need to be yourself, not an acolytefor a president who is now in the history books.

-- Use humor. In responding to controversy, bad press andnegative occurrences in general, learn to let it slide off of you witha knowing smile. Maybe even use some self-deprecation. Levi Johnston,your almost son-in-law, has been a thorn in your side. Let it go.Publicly sparring with a teenager is not presidential. Don't be afraidto make fun of yourself. Voters like candidates who know that theyaren't perfect and can laugh at themselves.

-- Think accountability. Yes, bad things happen to good people, andit isn't fair. But voters don't want to hear all the excuses of why aninterview didn't go well or which other person was responsible for abad decision. Americans want presidents who accept blame when things gowrong. They are tired of their leaders and institutions not admittingmistakes, learning from errors and making improvements.

Like it or not, if Sarah Palin decides to seek our nation's highestoffice, she has a shot. The probability of her success depends on herability, and that of President Obama, to admit and learn from theirmistakes as we head into 2012.

The writer, a political analyst for ABC News, was the chief strategist for George W. Bush's 2004 presidential campaign.