Aftermonths of buildup, the historic debate on health care reform opens onthe Senate floor Monday — but the C-SPAN cameras won’t see the realaction.

The next phase in the Democrats’ health care push will be waged in theprivacy of the Senate leadership office, where Majority Leader Harry Reid(D-Nev.) will attempt to do something that has eluded him all year:negotiate a compromise on the public insurance option that can garner60 votes and win over a public still leery of reform.

“There is the inside fight and the outside fight,” said Jim Kessler, a former top aide to Sen. Chuck Schumer(D-N.Y.) and vice president for policy at Third Way. “The inside fightis getting to 60, and the outside fight is winning the battle of publicopinion.”

The debate starts at 3 p.m. Monday with each side offering one amendment — a sign of how difficult the debate will be, since the two sides couldn’t agree to terms of the debate beyond the first two amendments.

Republicans want six weeks of debate — which would be enough to pushthe final vote past Christmas — and have an arsenal of stallingtactics. But Democrats can short-circuit the debate all at once, simplyby reaching a deal on the public option and filing cloture on the bill,which would set up the final crucial test vote before final passage.

Asked when he thought the debate would end, Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) said, “When there are 60 votes.”

Nelson, who has said he will vote against the bill because of thepublic option, will be a prime target of Reid’s backroom negotiations.But as the pre-Thanksgiving vote to send the bill to the floor showed,finding a middle ground is no small feat. Crafting a version thatpleases four centrists — Nelson and Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-La.),Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) — and maintainsthe Democratic left flank may well take until Christmas.

Each senator brings demands to the table. Nelson has said he couldsupport a public option that allows states to “opt-in.” Landrieu hassuggested she could live with a “trigger” that kicks in if privateinsurers don’t expand coverage fast enough. But Lincoln and Liebermanhave sounded more staunchly opposed to the public option, making itharder for Reid to fashion a compromise that gets him to 60 votes.

Another target for Reid is Sen. Olympia Snowe(R-Maine), a trigger supporter who could also be persuaded to joinDemocrats if they accept the changes to the public option advocated bycentrists.

There is one idea that supporters hope could rally the centrists: Callit the nonpublic “public option.” It’s an idea from Sen. Tom Carper(D-Del.) for a national insurance program that is neither run norfinanced by the government. It could win over moderates because itwouldn’t be a direct government expansion, but it would also satisfyliberals because it would be a national health insurance programdesigned to compete with private insurers from Day One.

It’s possible that the public option will be dealt with through amanager’s amendment, offered near the end of the debate, that ties uploose ends on the bill. It could include tweaks to the public option,ways to toughen up abortion restrictions in the bill (another concernof Nelson) and any other targeted attempts to secure a single senator’svote.

Reid will get backing from war rooms on Capitol Hill and in the WhiteHouse, where operatives with a coordinated strategy stand ready toamplify the floor debate. “Our focus is to get the bill off the flooras soon as possible in a form that is most consistent with thepresident,” said a senior administration official. Crafting a publicoption compromise “is largely what is taking up the time.”

And the White House is already prepared for the likelihood the billwon’t make it to Obama’s desk by year’s end, because even after theSenate passed the bill, it would still have to be negotiated with amore liberal version in the House — which includes a public option anda different funding mechanism to pay for reform.

Beyondfinding 60 votes, Reid will have several other tactical objectives. Hewill need to give Republicans their say while preventing a totalslowdown. Reid will look to shield his vulnerable members from castingvotes that will haunt them later. And he must keep so-called poisonpill amendments from passing by offering palatable alternatives.

But Reid isn’t negotiating in a vacuum. Senate Minority Leader MitchMcConnell (R-Ky.) has threatened to filibuster amendments, which couldboth shine a spotlight on unpopular amendments and drag out debate forweeks. Democrats are also expected to filibuster some amendments.

“As Sen. McConnell has made clear, we’ll have a free-ranging, opendebate, with amendments from both sides,” McConnell spokesman DonStewart said Sunday.

Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), perhaps the most prolific amendment writerin the Senate, has filed only two so far: to require all members ofCongress to enroll in the public option and to require members to signa form indicating they have read the bill.

“He has hundreds of amendment ideas and is looking forward to a full and open debate,” Coburn spokesman John Hart said.

Republicans also have other tactics at their disposal. For instance,they could flood the floor with amendments or demand that amendments beread word for word. Reid can defend against those tactics by blockingamendments or leaving the Senate in session 24 hours a day to paintRepublicans as round-the-clock obstructionists.

Democratic leaders assigned senators to lead messaging and amendmentteams in six areas: the middle class; health insurance reform;children, senior citizens and Medicare; fiscal responsibility; businessand small business; and the truth squad.

Republicans have taken a similar team approach and will target the morethan $400 billion in Medicare cuts, the more than $100 billion inindustry taxes and the impact on health care premiums.

Democrats are expecting the Republican amendment strategy to mirror theSenate Finance Committee markup, where senators sought to eliminate theproposed taxes and spending cuts. These amendments not only underminethe funding mechanism for the bill, but they also put politicallyvulnerable Democrats in the difficult position of voting to maintainunpopular elements.

Democrats also expect a series of amendments on hot buttons such as abortion, medical malpractice and immigration.

“We will have amendments to improve the bill, but they will put upamendments to set up 30-second attack ads and to score cheap politicalpoints,” Reid spokesman Jim Manley said.

One wild card in the debate is the expected release this week of aCongressional Budget Office study of the bill’s impact on premiums forall Americans. The CBO notified Senate offices last week that a reportwas expected “early" this week.

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) and numerous Republicans had requested theanalysis, and the timing of its release has caused anxiety amongDemocratic reform proponents.

Attempting to get ahead of the news, the White House released afour-page analysis Saturday by Massachusetts Institute of Technologyeconomics professor Jonathan Gruber, who used CBO data to conclude thatpremiums on the individual market could drop by $200 to $500 annually.

But the report did not address the small-business and large-groupmarkets, where many health policy experts expect premiums to continueto rise for most Americans — just at a slower rate than under thecurrent system.

Even with the possibility of a protracted and difficult debate, Kessler said he sees a silver lining for Democrats.

“There isn’t a single Democrat who doesn’t want to pass major healthreform,” Kessler said. “There are just a few who aren’t sure this isthe way to do it. You don’t have any folks who are skunks at the gardenparty who are going to defect. All the folks on the fence are truly inplay.”